Far from the madding crowd: collective wisdom in prediction markets

We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a repeated prediction market model. We derive the conditions for long-run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content of prevailing prices in the case of fractional Kelly traders with heterogeneous beliefs. It turns out that, apart some non-generic situations, prices do not converge, neither almost surely nor on average, to true probabilities, nor are they always nearer to the truth than the beliefs of all surviving agents. This implies that, in general, prediction market prices are not maximum likelihood estimators of the true probabilities. However, when more than one agent survives, the average price emerging from a prediction market approximates the true probability with lower information loss than any individual belief.     

Bank Competition and its Determinants: Evidence from Indian Banking

Abstract

This paper measures the degree of bank competition in India using a sample of 70 commercial banks over the period 1996–2016. To assess the degree of competition, we estimate the market power of each bank in our sample employing three nonstructural measures: the Lerner index, the adjusted Lerner index, and the Boone indicator. Bank-wise and year-wise estimates of the marginal cost required in all these measures are obtained using the semi-parametric method. The paper further attempts to undertake a comprehensive assessment of competition in Indian banking and identifies various bank-specific, macroeconomic, structural, and contestability indicators, which are supposed to explain level and variation of the degree of competition over time. Empirical findings reveal that public-sector banks in India exercise a relatively higher degree of bank competition compared to private and foreign-sector banks. However, aggregate results support that the Indian banking system is competitive in general. Unlike the structure-conduct-performance paradigm, which advocates that a concentrated banking system impairs competitiveness, our findings reveal that concentration measures hardly exert any effect on bank competition. Rather, contestability measures play a significant role in the determination of bank competition.     

Analyzing the influence of firm-wide integrated marketing communication on market performance in the hospitality industry

Over the last decade, scholars have recently emphasized the need for tourism marketers to orchestrate the wide range communication activities and forms via the adoption of Integrated Marketing Communication (IMC). However, prior research has almost neglected the role of IMC in hospitality management. This paper adopts a broad organizational approach conceiving IMC as a concept that involves the whole organizational entity and aims to analyze the effects of IMC on market performance, in terms of superior sales and financial results, greater brand advantage and customer-related outcomes for those businesses providing lodging services. To pursue this research purpose, a survey has been conducted among corporate-level senior managers of lodging businesses operating in Spain. The findings provided further and more compelling empirical proof of the positive influence of IMC on market performance, responding to the call for more rigorous empirical research to demonstrate the beneficial effects of firm-wide IMC on market performance.     

基于SCP范式的中国乳业市场绩效的实证分析

基于SCP范式的理论对我国乳业市场结构和市场行为的各项指标以及对市场绩效的影响进行实证分析,发现市场结构作用于市场行为并最终影响市场绩效,为企业在调整市场结构以提高市场绩效方面提供可借鉴的理论和政策建议。研究结果表明:①我国乳业行业规模经济效益越来越显著,行业进入壁垒提高,市场结构逐渐向中高度寡占型转变;②我国乳业的市场绩效与市场集中度、行业规模之间的相关关系通过显著性检验;③乳制品行业内各乳企之间的产品差异化不明显,技术程度有待加强。     

Market Reactions to Corporate Governance Ranking Announcements: Evidence from Taiwan

This study examines whether market participants react to the announcements of corporate governance ranking exercises. As a regulatory innovation, the Financial Supervisory Commission in Taiwan initiated and administered two ranking exercises, one in 2015 and the other in 2016, on all publicly listed companies. Adopting anchoring-and-adjustment theory, the study predicts that market participants will react strongly to the second announcement if the ranking obtained in the second exercise turns out to be better than the ranking in the first round. Employing an event study methodology, the study shows that market participants react positively and significantly to firms ranked in the top 50% in the second corporate governance exercise. Their reactions to the announcement are even stronger among those that did not list in the top 20% in the first exercise, but made it into the top 50% in the second one. Overall, our analyses support that anchoring-and-adjustment theory effectively explains market participants’ behaviour. Since the monitoring of the board of directors and investors may not effectively mitigate the potential moral hazard committed by family owners/executives, our empirical evidence demonstrates that a ranking exercise probably can be employed to supplement routine corporate governance disclosures made in annual reports, in order to strengthen the check-and-balance mechanism and reduce the risk of principal–principal conflicts. In conclusion, we discuss the implications of the research findings and propose directions for future studies.     

Augmented reality experiences and sensation seeking

Studies about augmented reality (AR) largely discuss the design of applications and adoption behaviours of the AR system. Attempts to understand user experiences with AR are scarce, especially in the field of tourism. This paper contributes to this gap by identifying travellers' experiences with AR applications when obtaining travel information. More specifically, this study applied the concept of sensation-seeking to segment travellers to better understand their AR experiences. An online questionnaire was designed and completed by a sample of 1042 study participants who all used an AR app in the course of this study. The results demonstrate the applicability of sensation-seeking to explain heterogeneous AR experiences. Of the four sensation-seeking elements, experience-seeking and boredom-susceptibility were identified as key elements to classify the travel groups in the context of AR applications. Managerial implications for tourism marketers are suggested.     

中国OFDI技术创新效应的传导机制——基于资本要素市场扭曲视角的分析

本文尝试构建一个中国OFDI(对外直接投资)技术创新效应传导机制理论框架,并对资本要素市场扭曲影响OFDI技术创新效应的作用机制和结果进行拓展分析。研究表明:近年来中国企业OFDI对技术创新具有正向效果,且OFDI企业可以通过从劳动密集型向资本密集型的转型升级、提高管理效率以及生产效率这三个重要途径实现其技术创新能力的跃升;现阶段中国资本要素市场扭曲现象会显著抑制企业OFDI技术创新效应,作用机制是,资本要素市场扭曲作为干扰外部摩擦因子,通过降低企业资本要素密集度和生产效率等渠道抑制企业OFDI技术创新效果。本文进一步提出构建知识产权金融化建议,包含知识产权股权化、知识产权证券化和知识产权流动性机制等内容,以此引导更多金融资源和人力资源参与企业技术创新活动。     

全球股票市场间风险传染的测度、监管及预警

近年来,伴随金融一体化程度的加深,全球各股票市场间风险传染的动态复杂性加剧,其准确测度、高效监管及实时预警已成为优先事项。本研究选取全球21个代表性股票市场作为分析样本,首先基于广义向量自回归模型的滚动估计准确测度其间风险动态传染的高维网络序列,进一步借由矩阵值因子模型来稳健收缩上述序列,以探究其潜在动态核心结构,从而实现高效监管。最后,通过向量自回归模型的预测功能实现对全球股票市场间风险传染的实时预警。研究表明,全球股票市场间风险传染具有时变性,其监管与预警可通过少数与地理区域高度相关的风险区域间的动态传染关系及内部的市场构成来刻画。与此同时,我们发现中国内地等新兴市场的重要地位逐渐凸显。本文研究结论可为有效防范与化解金融风险提供有益参考。     

Influencing factors of farmers’ willingness to withdraw from rural homesteads: A survey in zhejiang,China

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the influencing factors on farmers’ willingness of withdrawal from rural homesteads (WRH). Methods that included field surveys, factor analyses and case studies were used for this paper. The results show that farmers have a strong willingness to own the property on which their homesteads sit. There are deviations between homestead systems and execution. It is common that the area of a homestead exceeds the lawful standard, and one peasant family owns two or more homesteads. Peasant families have many concerns about WRH, which include: reduction of employment, lack of supporting social security, high expenditure of new houses, low compensation criteria for homesteads, decline in standard of living and inconvenience in agricultural production. Among all means of compensation, peasants prefer allocated residences, and they pay more attention to public service facilities and fundamental facilities. The authors argue that implementing employment and social security policies and setting up linkage mechanisms of WRH could help to smoothly push forward WRH.     

The stock market effects of a securities transaction tax: Quasi-experimental evidence from Italy

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, in several countries new levies on the financial sector have been proposed and in some cases implemented. We focus in particular on the recent introduction of a securities transaction tax (STT) in Italy. A peculiarity of the Italian STT is that it only concerns stocks of corporations with a market capitalization above € 500 million. We exploit this feature via a differences-in-differences approach – comparing taxed and non-taxed stocks before and after the introduction of the tax – and via a regression discontinuity design – comparing the performance of stocks just above the threshold with those just below. Focusing on the regulated market, we find that the new tax reduced liquidity, but it left transaction volumes and returns substantially unaffected. There is also evidence – although not conclusive – that the tax increased volatility.